From what I see and read, you are at the limit (maybe even over) of your garage panels capacity. The heater would use 20 A. Your panel capacity is now in 1/2. Lights 2, maybe 3. Tub heater, don't know,maybe 6 to 10. Welder, at least 30. What I see, no room for separate circuits for heater and welder.
Options:
1- install a 60 amp, if allowed in Ontario or better yet, a 100 Amp service in garage, more circuits available, upgrade supply wires,, new panel and have a separate supply from hydro pole.. This would mean a separate meter, read bill, for the garage.
2-Upgrade your house to 200 Amp. and then upgrade the garage via a 50 or 60 amp from the house with #3 or #4 wires
3- leave it alone. plug welder in after taking heater out and hope you don't trip the house breaker.
4- run a separate wire to the garage from the old house heater circuit for the welder. It is a pain in the rear to fish wire through existing conduit though you could run in a Tech cable separately to the garage.
This would still put you over the present capacity of your houses main breaker and wires. I think you haven't tripped the breaker because you are slightly under the 40 amp house breaker limit right now. Your garage heater has an over capacity breaker, you could go to a 25 or even a 20 (which is too close IMO unless it would have a delayed trip). Having said all that, my suggestion is to take option 2 as a first choice and Option 1 as a second choice.. Either way, it will cost a lot of money which is another matter. Most of these will cost. I'm also not sure how Ontario ensures CEC compliance. Here in NS, all of that is done through NS Power and permits are only given to licensed electricians
Above all, "do not' put a bigger breaker in the house to replace the 40 that is there. Also a dryer plug won't work as it is made for 230/115 volts
Hope some of this helps. BTW, your doing a good job as Moderator.