"the Mooch"

carnivorous chicken

Active Member
It was flawed, but better than nothing -- not simply my opinion, but I believe the opinion of most policymakers and experts as well. They certainly now have their cake and can eat it-- the returned assets were part of the agreement, and now they have their assets and no reason to follow the agreement. Trump says he will bring them to the table for a better deal, but let's be honest -- Trump's deal making "ability" is vastly overrated, especially by Trump himself. That being said, the Rial is down 35% or so, so Iran is in a bit of a pinch. Working against Iran coming back to the table is the (justified) portrayal of Trump as a raging Islamophobe. A deal will not play well to a domestic Iranian audience, and the mullahs can stoke nationalism easily in this case to bolster their position.

Interesting report the other day of someone finding the mummy of the Shah, by the way.
 

J-Rod10

Active Member
DTT BOTM WINNER
They don't necessarily have their cake, and are eating it to. We just instituted even worse sanctions on them than they had prior. We can absolutely hamstring them, and Europe will follow suit with us. They always do.

Like anything else, you cut the revenue off, they'll fall in line.
 

J-Rod10

Active Member
DTT BOTM WINNER
On another note, I've seen people talking about steel prices. Last two loads of 6061 I have gotten, have been cheaper on all but one size, and looking back at receipts going back to last year, it's held steady at $3.11 a foot since at least February.
 

teazer

Well-Known Member
DTT BOTM WINNER
J-Rod10 said:
One unilaterally put us in it. Another can just as easily get us out of it, apparently.


The JCPOA didn't address Iran's ballistic missile program. It didn't stop Iran's other misbehavior in the Middle East. Key provisions of the agreement expire after 10 to 15 years. And it rewarded Iran by unfreezing its assets frozen by years of U.S. sanctions.

It really was a bad deal from the start, though. Iran got their cake, and got to eat it too.

Not exactly. The US was only one party to that deal. Other countries were also involved in making the deal including Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China and they are the permanent members of the UN Security Council. It was a coordinated effort to get a deal done. Like most deals, this one is not perfect and the gaps were well understood by all signatories to the agreement.

It was never intended to include some of the aspects that Trump now wants to include.

Bottom line is that one of two things is likely to happen. Either the other parties to the agreement decide to stay in it, then the US will be faced with massive lost sales of Boeing aircraft AND it will be in a position where it tries to strongarm the other 5 parties to tow the line.

And if they do, Iran can validly and legally restart its Nuclear weapons program.

That in turn will prompt Israel to bomb Iranian facilities again and after that it's anyone's guess as to what would happen next. It won't be good for anyone though.

And what does the US get out of all of this? Absolutely nothing. Potentially increased sales of arms to countries fighting Israel - that won't be a nice place to be.

Why did Trump pull this stunt? Because it's a deal he didn't make so he has to tear it up with no plan to replace it except his promise that he alone can do the best deals in the world. That's what it comes down to.

I heard today that Bolton and some others believe that the Iranian people will rise up and take over the government like they did in Iraq and Libya and we know how badly those two places turned out.
 

J-Rod10

Active Member
DTT BOTM WINNER
Since the deal has been in place, Iran has developed new ballistic missiles capable of carrying multiple warheads. We gave them money to put towards doing so. We had to give them 24 days notice prior to inspection, because, you know an inspection 24 days after telling them there's an inspection is totally going to be legit.

It was a bad deal. I don't know why people are surprised. This was one of his main campaign promises. It's like people get pissed off when they don't keep their campaign promises, and are pissed off when they do too.

Europe will fall in line. They always do. Russia, probably not. China, 50/50. They need us more than we need them.
 

teazer

Well-Known Member
DTT BOTM WINNER
It is generally accepted that there was room to improve the deal, but he who shall not be named decided to tear it up and replace it with what? Nothing. He cannot seriously believe that he alone can do a better deal by the time that sanctions start to come on line, so what is his game plan? Act like a bully and hope that everyone else backs down? This what America has come down to. That is not leadership, but why would anyone be surprised. He's never been a leader or a good manager and we expected him to change? Silly us.
 

J-Rod10

Active Member
DTT BOTM WINNER
They've got six months until the sanctions kick in, I believe.

I have a feeling a new deal will be in place before we put the screws on their revenue stream.
 

carnivorous chicken

Active Member
It's possible that Iran will come out ahead either way. Aside from getting they money held by the US, they had shut down 2/3 of their centrifuges and given up 95% of their uranium. Inspectors had extra powers to monitor their nuclear facilities. Assumptions that the US will pull out and get the Iranians to agree to a tightening of the deal aren't shared by a lot of experts. If things go south, Iran will simply fire up the reactors again, destabilizing the region, putting Israel on edge, and crreating more chaos.

Assuming that Europe will fall lockstep with the US is a bit of a leap -- Trump has alienated most European leaders. In a speech last year Merkel argued that it was time for Europe to be prepared to go it alone because they expected shit like this. Trump has no idea what he is doing -- there's no way around that -- and has no soild plan put in place to replace it. Flying by the seat of your pants while conduction international relations usually doesn't work, unless you are a rogue state like N Korea and unpredictability is used as a strategy.

The US is engaging in talks with North Korea. Pulling out of this agreement now signals that the US does not feel the need to maintain its international agreements, removing motivation for N Korea to create one.
 

J-Rod10

Active Member
DTT BOTM WINNER
Interesting, to me, anyhow.

Iran has said they now have an increased capacity to enrich uranium than they had before the agreement went in to effect, along with new centrifuges to do it with.

How does that even happen under the agreement?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/en.radiofarda.com/amp/29082529.html

So, as we sit, they have developed new long and mid range ballistic missiles, capable of carrying multiple warheads, and increased their capacity for uranium enrichment under the deal, in less than three years.
 

carnivorous chicken

Active Member
Not so sure Radio Farda is particularly reliable, and it's in Kamalvandi's interest to exagerate Iran's potential capabilities. I'll wait and see if this gets picked up and reported elsewhere.

One other easy way to think about this: we are now punishing Iran for maintaining its end of the bargain.

And another brief note on European support: European companies rushed in after the agreement. Perhaps a little hasty, perhaps a little foolish, and with the weakening rial it would likely be tough going. But... these companies have lobbying power in their respective European capitals...
 

J-Rod10

Active Member
DTT BOTM WINNER
I try to read as little news as possible from here.

One praises all, the others bash all. Zero objectivity.
 

carnivorous chicken

Active Member
There are certainly better places for news elsewhere, but it's a bit cynical to lump all US media together as though they're all terrible. You might be surprised to find that the NYT published a column praising getting out of the Iran deal as well as one criticicizing the decision. Similar to what you wrote, I tend to find that people in the US who condemn the media are also the first to admit they don't read them.
 

J-Rod10

Active Member
DTT BOTM WINNER
I read them. Just not as often as international sources. Every news source puts a slant on everything to fit their demo. That's just the way it is. International sources have less motivation to do so.

On another note. The three Americans that were being held in NK are on a plane home right now!
 

carnivorous chicken

Active Member
A quick recap of a few events since Trump announced the US will pull out of the Iran deal...

Iran and Israel have been shooting missiles at each other via Syria.

Iran has vowed to fire up its reactors again.

Iranian leaders have ramped up the anti-American rhetoric, although it appears many Iranians are shrugging their shoulders.

Europe has distanced itself further from the US.

Europe is scrambling trying to save the agreement.

The United States has come up with no viable "plan b" other than slapping sanctions on Iran, even though Iran had abided by the agreement and it was the US that pulled out.

-- but Korea!
 

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