"the Mooch"

J-Rod10

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Interesting forecast.

On the machinist/metalworking groups I am in, everybody is busy as can be, myself included, and having trouble finding enough qualified people to hire. Two steel mills locally are adding jobs continuously to keep up with demand. Apprenticeship programs are on the rise to get youngsters into the trades.

I'm not necessarily saying they are wrong, but what they are saying, and the current climate in manufacturing don't seem to line up.
 

sav0r

Member
I think it's safe to say that we should wait and see. Forecasts being forecasts. That said, it's a little frustrating when Donnie just makes things up.

I know some of the import machine tool equipment I tried to buy got significantly more expensive a few weeks ago. I don't run day in and day out, mostly small scale R&D projects, but it hurt my bottom line, at least it will until I pass it on to the bottom line of my customers.
 

J-Rod10

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On another note; Wage growth has hit a 10 year high, and The Fed didn't raise interest rates today, and upgraded its economic outlook, which will lead to more spending.
 

J-Rod10

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On the subject of new steel mills opening; The CEO of NuCor was at Trump's rally thing the other night talking about the new plants they are opening. So, it may make sense that US Steel doesn't know about it. It's a different company.
 

sav0r

Member
Trump specifically claimed US Steel was building six plants, I haven't heard of the Nucor plant until googling. Sound like are building one plant in Florida.

Here's the link from the previous page, since you didn't read it.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/major-u-s-steel-expansion-touted-by-trump-not-happening/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-spending/us-consumer-spending-rises-wage-growth-slows-in-second-quarter-idUSKBN1KL1SR

wage growth slowed down
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/08/01/federal-reserve-interest-rates-steady-september-hike/873786002/

The Fed said inflation remains near its 2 percent annual target.

The Commerce Department said Tuesday the Fed’s preferred inflation measure edged up just modestly in June after reaching its goal earlier this year. That left unchanged both annual inflation, at 2.2 percent, and a core reading that strips out volatile food and energy items – which the Fed watches more closely – at 1.9 percent.

Still, the Fed expects core inflation to rise to 2.1 percent next year as unemployment continues to fall, pushing up wage growth.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-finance-202/2018/08/01/the-finance-202-republicans-crow-about-wage-growth/5b608d3c1b326b0207955e83/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.679adc430667'

The results suggest that an economy firing on most cylinders is still failing to produce the kind of broad-based gains that Republicans have pledged to deliver through a sweeping tax cut and deregulation.

That could change: Some see more meaningful wage gains ahead as whatever slack that remains in the labor market works its way out. Tuesday’s report offered “another sign that the labor markets are tightening and that compensation is going up as employers compete for workers,” says Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum.
So wage growth is close to inflation, which doesn't seem too bad, but I'm not sure it's making America great again.
 

J-Rod10

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Wage growth and inflation are measured in tenths of percentage points. Inflation at 2.2 puts wage growth 6 tenths higher. Not as small as it seems just looking at numbers.

I'll have to look it back up later, but an article I read last night talked about unemployment being likely to drop to 3.5% by end of 2019, and the effect that will have on accelerating wage growth at a much faster rate with added competition for workers.
 

J-Rod10

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Apple became the first company to reach a $1,000,000,000,000 market valuation this morning.
 

carnivorous chicken

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Against the pleas of his lawyers, Trump is pushing for an interview with Mueller. Reminds me of the cartoon of Trump playing checkers against Putin playing chess.
 

carnivorous chicken

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And in what can only be described as the new normal of the regular news cycle, Steven Seagal was appointed by Russia to smooth over relations with the US (and you know Trump is going to love getting together with that guy), Trump admitted that the hotel meeting was about dirt on Hillary (after denying it for months), and Gates just threw Manafort (farther) under the bus. And in what one can only assume was a misunderstanding of rivers and streams, gravity, and the flow of water, Trump decries how Californians are just throwing water into the ocean.
 

J-Rod10

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I've been following the trial a bit.

Seems to be some conflicting stories on Gates. Obviously he cut a deal, and was expected to throw Manafort under the bus. Manafort's accountant said it was Gates providing the info to them. Manafort's lawyers have said they'll introduce evidence showing Gates to be the one hiding money, and embezzling money to boot.

I suppose that should shake out tomorrow.

Never been a fan of getting a deal on your crimes to testify against another's. How trustworthy is Gates having had admitted to lying and agreeing to testify against Manafort in exchange for a far smaller sentence. His accountant was also given immunity for knowingly submitting falsified tax returns.


Not saying Manafort is innocent. I don't know if he is, or he isn't.
 

irk miller

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carnivorous chicken said:
And in what one can only assume was a misunderstanding of rivers and streams, gravity, and the flow of water, Trump decries how Californians are just throwing water into the ocean.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ashoka/2015/04/15/why-does-california-let-billions-of-gallons-of-fresh-water-flow-straight-into-the-ocean/#495030bc517c

https://www.kqed.org/science/549358/california-reservoirs-are-dumping-water-in-a-drought-but-science-could-change-that
 

J-Rod10

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irk miller said:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ashoka/2015/04/15/why-does-california-let-billions-of-gallons-of-fresh-water-flow-straight-into-the-ocean/#495030bc517c

https://www.kqed.org/science/549358/california-reservoirs-are-dumping-water-in-a-drought-but-science-could-change-that
3.8" of rainwater collected could provide half of LA's yearly water needs. That's interesting.

You'd think, in the midst of a multiyear drought, they'd consider doing something with that.
 

carnivorous chicken

Active Member
It's as if conservatives think those "California liberals" are just too stupid to know what to do with their own water.

Trump is playing to the conservative base, farmers in central California, who want more water diverted to them, as an aide acknowledged yesterday. But without thinking too deeply:

-- capturing rainwater is diverting water that feeds the ecosystem (rivers and streams). Just let them dry up? There are, obviously, human consequences (including economic) not just consequences for fish and other wildlife.

-- most firefighting is done with chemicals, not water.

-- diverting water from rivers and streams will dry out more areas and make them more prone to fire.

But we don't know what Trump was thinking because he won't clarify his position.
 

irk miller

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carnivorous chicken said:
-- most firefighting is done with chemicals, not water.
Chemicals are mixed with water. Water is the vehicle. Phos-Chek, for example, is comprised of phosphates and sulfates, clay, and guar gum mixed into water. They come as a dry powder and need to be mixed like Kool-Aid. Straight water is also used to saturate boundaries and to cool areas. Most firefighting is done with water, not the other way around.

Also, it's pretty common knowledge there is significant controversy surrounding California water and has been for decades. Not sure why you're trying to make Trump a villain in it all. They've been mismanaging water resources for a long time. Considering 95% of the water in Southern California is brought in via manmade viaducts from the Colorado river, I'd say it's a legitimate problem. You keep bringing rivers and streams into the conversation, but the ones within the state's borders only provide 5% of the water to the region, which is desert.
 

carnivorous chicken

Active Member
irk miller said:
Also, it's pretty common knowledge there is significant controversy surrounding California water and has been for decades. Not sure why you're trying to make Trump a villain in it all. They've been mismanaging water resources for a long time. Considering 95% of the water in Southern California is brought in via manmade viaducts from the Colorado river, I'd say it's a legitimate problem. You keep bringing rivers and streams into the conversation, but the ones within the state's borders only provide 5% of the water to the region, which is desert.
Never said water isn't controversial in California. And people capturing water might be part of a solution, but it's not as simple as saying "fill your cisterns and the problem is solved -- you people are mismanaging by not doing so."

I'm making Trump a villain in it? Trump, as the president, injected himself into a conversation over forest fires and water by making a politically motivated and uninformed statement which he refuses to clarify. Trump regularly injects himself into conversations with politically motivated and uniformed statements which he refuses to clarify. In the shitshow that is US politics under Trump, my original post was simply pointing out that in the past couple of days more amazing/frightening news has come out, including Trump's tweet about water and firefighting.

And you misunderstand my statement about rivers and streams. I'm not talking about in-state rivers and streams that provide water -- I know that most of California's water comes from the Colorado (I lived in Arizona for 20 years). But the rivers and streams that do exist in California, and that are fed by rainwater and other sources, flow into the Pacific. Collecting rainwater will have unintended consequences for existing watersheds and the ecosystem, including fisheries, by depriving them of water. It's that simple.
 

sav0r

Member
To be fair, Trump brought himself into the conversation. If he didn't want to be criticized, he probably should have kept his vapid rhetoric to himself, as we know that's easier said than done in his case.

Politics aside, CA certainly could use a water overhaul as you mention. That's likely a many billion dollar effort to effectively transform that situation, but it would be good for labor there. For the 6th largest economy in the world it's not too far fetched to consider.
 

J-Rod10

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Sav0r said:
To be fair, Trump brought himself into the conversation. If he didn't want to be criticized, he probably should have kept his vapid rhetoric to himself, as we know that's easier said than done in his case.

Politics aside, CA certainly could use a water overhaul as you mention. That's likely a many billion dollar effort to effectively transform that situation, but it would be good for labor there. For the 6th largest economy in the world it's not too far fetched to consider.
California is the highest taxed state in the country. They ought to have a little change for such projects.
 

carnivorous chicken

Active Member
J-Rod10 said:
California is the highest taxed state in the country. They ought to have a little change for such projects.
No, New York is. California is 10th, in combined measures, or 4th or 5th in terms of state sales tax.

California brings in the most revenue by state taxes in the country, but that's because it has, by far, the highest population.

I agree, however -- there must be a better solution, and they should devote some resources to it. Perhaps Trump has a plan?
 
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